Manitoba Daily

Friday, January 28, 2022

Will the holidays bring snow? It’s possible, according to the forecast

Will the holidays bring snow? It's possible, as per the forecast

Key takeaways:

  • While the Weather Network’s December forecast was “busted,” the network reports that Canada could still see cold and snowy weather between Christmas and New Year’s.
  • Gillham points to a change in the jet stream that occurred as predicted in mid-November.

The Weather Network reports that while its December forecast was “busted,” Canada could still see cold and snowy weather between Christmas and New Year’s Day.

While seasonal forecasts called for a warmer-than-normal fall and a mild “come-and-go winter” with above-normal temperatures, the end of November and the month of December were called for a period of more consistent winter weather, according to meteorologist Doug Gillham.

“That forecast is definitely off the rails,” writes Gillham.

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“We specifically stated that skiing would be a better option than golf in the weeks leading up to Christmas. While I doubt many people went golfing this week, the weather for skiers is going to be brutal for the next seven days.”

Gillham points to a change in the jet stream that occurred as predicted in mid-November.

On the other hand, temperatures in northern Canada remained “exceptionally” warm, implying that cold fronts from the north simply brought temperatures back to normal.

By the end of November, some Arctic air had passed through Ontario and Quebec at least twice before losing “some of its bite” as it crossed the Great Lakes, which had experienced record-breaking warm temperatures this fall and summer.

Will it snow during the holidays? It is still possible, as per the forecast
Will it snow during the holidays? It is still possible, as per the forecast. Image from iNews

Despite some “significant” lake-effect snow events, Gillham claims that the cold weather could never “lock-in” for more than a few days.

He credits an “exceptionally powerful jet stream” over the Pacific Ocean to bring a “parade of storms” to the British Columbia coast and spread mild Pacific air east across the United States and southern Canada, resulting in an extended period of above-average temperatures in Ontario and Quebec.

Frozen weather is expected to build across Alaska, and Western Canada as the Pacific jet stream slows, resulting in a weather pattern similar to what was predicted for January and February.

However, whether the majority of Canada will experience a white or green Christmas this year will “likely come down to the wire,” according to Gillham.

He writes that several “dominos” will have to fall just right this holiday season to create a period of consistent winter weather.

The most important of these will be a shift in the jet stream pattern over the Pacific Ocean and into Alaska, leading to a few weeks of cold and snowy weather over the holidays and into early January.

“However, if the jet stream pattern fails to evolve as expected over the Pacific Ocean, it’s time to dust off the golf clubs,” he said.

Source: CTV News

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